Biofuel Market - Overview and Outlook by Potential Growth 2024-2032

Biofuel Market Synopsis

Global Biofuel Market Was Valued at USD 119.76 Billion in 2023 and is Projected to Reach USD 198.08 Billion by 2032, Growing at a CAGR of 5.75% from 2024 to 2032.

Biofuels refer to any fuel derived and produced from organic material, such as plants and their residues, crops, and by-products, that can be a capable substitute for petroleum-derived fuel. In recent times, with the growing use of advanced technology, there has been a significant increase in energy demand, leading to the overconsumption of fossil fuels.

Thus, renewable energy is considered a conceivable substitute and is gaining importance globally for its social, economic, and environmental impacts. Biofuels play a particularly significant role in decarbonizing transport by providing a low-carbon solution for extant technologies, such as LDV (light-duty vehicles) in the near term and ships, heavy-duty trucks, and aircraft with some different and cost-effective results in the long term.

For instance, in 2022 biofuels defined over 3.5% of worldwide transport energy appeal, especially for road transport. The usage of biofuels has expanded by nearly 6% a year for the past 5 years. In the NZE (Net Zero Emissions) Scenario, the increase of biofuels to transport more than double to 9% in 2030, accounting for a similar share of fuel demand for road vehicles alone. 

Driving Factors

Government Promoting the Innovations of Biofuel

• Most of the new biofuel demand over the upcoming years is expected to come from emerging economies, particularly Brazil, Indonesia, and India. Biofuel use is expected to expand the most in these regions. Renewable diesel and biobased SAF are expected to be the primary growth segments in advanced economies, including the U.S., the European Union, Canada, and Japan.
• Furthermore, agricultural policies existed well before the introduction of biofuels. These policies also have implications at the international level for agricultural trade and geographical patterns of agricultural production.
• For instance, a significant program to boost the nation's advanced biofuel industry, the Pradhan Mantri JI-VAN Yojana, has been extended by the Union Cabinet. The updated plan expands its scope to include biofuels made from lignocellulosic feedstocks like algae, forestry waste, industrial byproducts, and agricultural leftovers, and it extends its implementation term by five years, to 2028–2029.

Restraining Factors

Rising Concerns about Food Security and Carbon Emissions

• The factors impeding the growth of the global biofuel market include feedstock availability, The availability and type of feedstock are pivotal in biofuel production. Feedstocks have environmental impacts varying yields, and energy content.
• For instance, corn and sugarcane are broadly used for ethanol production, while algae are an assuring source for biofuels due to their rapid growth and high oil content. The major source of emissions and environmental degradation from biofuels is the alteration of natural lands, like forests and grasslands, to farms for crops including corn and soy.
• Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that acres devoted to corn and soy cultivation increased by 17% in the Midwest from 2008-2022, displacing other crops and natural lands.

Market Segmentation

The Global Biofuel Market Is Segmented Into By Type, Fuel Type, and Application.

By Type, Corn Segment Is Expected To Dominate The Market During The Forecast Period

• Based on the type of the global biofuel market is segmented into corn, sugarcane, vegetable oils (soybean oil, rapeseed oil & palm oil), and others. Among these, the corn segment dominates the market with the largest market share through the forecast period. Corn (dry grain) is annually cultivated on an estimated 206 Mha of farmland globally, making it the second most extensively grown crop globally after wheat with a peak production and productivity of 1210 million tonnes and 5879 kg/ha, respectively.
• Corn has been a significant crop in the United States and many other countries around the globe. In recent years, it has also become a main source of biofuel production due to its high starch content that can be transformed into ethanol through different processes by fermentation. The use of corn for biofuels has gained attention as a substitute for fossil fuels, which has the potential to reduce GHG emissions and promote energy security.
• Furthermore, the production of fuel ethanol from corn grain is broadly carried out in the US, with a total current production of 7 billion gallons. This is projected to reach 10 billion gallons or more.

By Fuel Type, The Ethanol Segment Held The Largest Share In 2023

• Based on the fuel type the global biofuel market is segmented into biodiesel, ethanol, and others (propanol, butanol, methanol, and biogas). Among these, the ethanol segment dominates the market with the largest market share through the forecast period.
• According to the World Energy Outlook 2024 study, fuel ethanol production will rise to nearly 149 million metric tons by 2030. This would lead to an increase of more than 20 million metric tons compared with 2022 levels.
• Ethanol is set to continue to be the most produced biofuel type, as biodiesel production volumes remain nearly half those of ethanol.  For instance, the Government of India has been actively promoting the production and blending of fuel ethanol with petrol and has targeted 20% blending through the Ethanol Blended Petrol (EBP) Programme or EBP20 by 2025. EBP20, which was earlier targeted by 2030, was advanced in December 2020, trafficking the Government’s center of attention and commitment towards biofuels.

By Application, The Transportation Segment Held The Largest Share In 2023

• Based on the application the global biofuel market is segmented into transportation, aviation, energy generation, heating, and others. Among these, the transportation segment dominates the market with the largest market share through the forecast period. The boost of biofuels claims clear benefits both for the security of energy supply and for reassuring climate change. In addition, biofuels could contribute to minimizing urban pollution and to the development of rural areas.
• Biofuels are mostly adaptable to recent vehicles and can be blended with current fossil fuels. The total transportation fuel demand accounted for about 791 billion liters. It is projected that the biofuel demand in the U.S. will rise to eight percent by 2030, while the total fuel demand will decrease to some 688 billion liters.

Global Biofuel Market Regional Analysis

North America is anticipated to hold the largest share of the global biofuel market over the predicted timeframe

• North America is anticipated to hold the largest share of the global biofuel market over the predicted timeframe. The production of biofuels has risen significantly in North America in recent years. The United States (U.S.) is prominent in this development and has promoted biofuels through several policies and mandates through the Renewable Fuels Standard to drive production, research, and innovation in the region.
• Canada has also intensified the promotion of biofuels in recent years through the Renewable Fuels Regulation, in addition to several provincial policies and mandates to promote biofuels. For instance, in April 2024, the Canadian Fuels Association (CFA) acclaimed the government for announcing up to $1.7 billion in support for the biofuel sector.
• Capacity to produce biofuels raised 7% in the United States during 2023, reaching 24 billion gallons per year (gal/y) at the start of 2024, led by a 44% increase in renewable diesel and other biofuels. Other biofuels include renewable heating oil, renewable jet fuel (also known as sustainable aviation fuel), and renewable naphtha and gasoline.
• Asia Pacific is expected to grow at the fastest CAGR growth of the global biofuel market during the forecast period. Biofuel production has been increasing significantly in various Asian countries in recent years. This is boosted by the government’s reaching of energy security, economic development, and poverty alleviation.
• Most Asian countries have their biofuel tactics center of attraction around the country’s main agricultural product and new business opportunities. India has quickly joined the ranks of major biofuel producers and consumers owing to a set of interdependent policies, high-level political support, and the affluence of feedstocks.
• Over the next five years, biofuel demand is set to expand 38 billion liters, a nearly 30% increase from the last five-year period. Total biofuel demand will rise 23% to 200 billion liters by 2028, with renewable diesel and bio jet computing for half of this growth with the rest coming from ethanol and biodiesel. 

From the above graph, it is seen that the United States region completely dominated the global biofuel market in 2023 with over 38 percent of the global share. Brazil and Indonesia have 2^nd and 3^rd highest biofuel production countries, boasting a share of 21.9% and 9.4% respectively.

Competitive Analysis:

The report offers the appropriate analysis of the key organizations/companies involved within the global biofuel market along with a comparative evaluation primarily based on their product offering, business overviews, geographic presence, enterprise strategies, segment market share, and SWOT analysis. The report also provides an elaborative analysis focusing on the current news and developments of the companies, which includes product development, innovations, joint ventures, partnerships, mergers & acquisitions, strategic alliances, and others. This allows for the evaluation of the overall competition within the market.

Biofuel Market Active Players

• ADM (US)
• Chevron (US)
• Valero (US)
• Neste (Finland)
• Cargill (US)
• Incorporated (US)
• Wilmar International Ltd (Singapore)
• VERBIO AG (Germany)
• Borregaard AS (Norway)
• POET, LLC (US)
• The Andersons, Inc. (US)
• Green Plains Inc. (US)
• BP p.l.c. (UK)
• FutureFuel Corporation (US)
• Münzer Bioindustrie GmbH (Austria)
• Aemetis, Inc. (US)
• CropEnergies AG (Germany)
• Raízen (Brazil)
• Blue Biofuels, Inc. (US)
• Pannonia Bio Zrt. (Hungary)
• GreenJoules (India)
• Algenol (US)
• Other Active Players

Key Industry Developments

• In December 2024, STX Group, a leading environmental commodities and climate solutions firm, announced the acquisition of Marine Olie, a leading trader of waste-based advanced feedstocks. This strategic acquisition strengthens STX Group’s position in the biofuels value chain and supports the company’s vision to become a globally leading trader in the integrated feedstocks-to-fuels-to-ticket markets.
• In September 2024, During India's G20 presidency, the Global Biofuels Alliance (GBA) is taking a major step toward a sustainable energy transition. The goal of the GBA, which was started by India and eight other nations, including the US and Brazil, is to promote the use of sustainable biofuels and cleaner, more climate-friendly fossil fuel substitutes worldwide. By developing recommendations to reduce climate change, securing a cheaper supply, and accelerating the global adoption of biofuels through technical assistance and capacity building, the GBA hopes to accomplish these goals.
• In May 2024, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK) began a long-term biofuel* test run on its very large crude oil tanker (VLCC) Tenjun (hereafter “the vessel”). The vessel received an initial supply of biofuel in Singapore and will continue to use biofuel for approximately three months to comprehensively verify the safe and stable procurement of biofuel for long-term use.